In Path of Exile, the Orb of Conflict is a currency item that allows players to manipulate the influence mods on specific items. While the game hints at its bias, it fails to provide concrete information on the odds involved. Recently, the player base has uncovered the mechanics behind the Orb of Conflict, shedding light on its functionality. This guide aims to explain how the Orb of Conflict works and its implications when used on items influenced by both Eater of Worlds and Searing Exarch.

• Understanding the Orb of Conflict
• Understanding the Bias
• Probability Calculation
• Average Results and Conclusion

 

↖ Understanding the Orb of Conflict

The Orb of Conflict drains a portion of power from one influence mod while boosting the other. When applied to an item with both Eater of Worlds and Searing Exarch influences, it randomly selects one of the mods and adjusts its tier. For example, if you start with a Grand-tier Searing Exarch mod and an Exceptional-tier Eater of Worlds mod, the Orb of Conflict can potentially lower the Grand tier while raising the Exceptional tier.

 

↖ Understanding the Bias

It's important to note that the Orb of Conflict does not offer a 50/50 chance for raising or lowering a modifier. Instead, the probability depends on the relative strength of the modifier. The player base has conducted empirical testing to determine the odds and has shared their findings. However, due to ongoing issues with Reddit, where the discussion took place, we are unable to provide a direct link to the thread. Nevertheless, we will summarize the key information.

 

↖ Probability Calculation

The chances of raising or lowering a modifier tier are as follows:

• For a one-tier difference between modifiers: 39% chance to raise the higher tier and 61% chance to raise the lower tier.
• For a two-tier difference between modifiers: 28% chance to raise the higher tier and 72% chance to raise the lower tier.
• For a three-tier difference between modifiers: 83% chance to raise the higher tier and 17% chance to raise the lower tier.

 

For example, if you aim to raise an Exquisite-tier modifier (17-18 Aura effect) to a Perfect-tier modifier (19-20 Universal Aura effect), the Markov chain calculator can help assess the chances and intermediate steps involved in the process.

 

↖ Average Results and Conclusion

Based on calculations, on average, it will take approximately 3.25 uses of the Orb of Conflict to reach the desired modifier tier or end up in a "brick" state. A brick state occurs when the item is not viable for further modification. The average probabilities for achieving the desired state are 86.71% for Perfect Grand and 13.29% for a brick state.

 

While these averages provide a good estimate, it's essential to remember that there is a small chance of the process taking significantly more uses of the Orb of Conflict.

 

In conclusion, the Orb of Conflict is a valuable tool for enhancing item mods in Path of Exile. Understanding its mechanics and probability calculations can help players make informed decisions when using this currency item. Experiment with caution and remember not to use conflicting orbs on the same item, as they may not yield favorable results. May your orbs of conflict and your endeavors in Path of Exile be rewarding and enjoyable!